建筑安全风险因素分级排序的风险矩阵法

为减少风险分级排序时产生的风险结,在引入施工安全事故频率的基础上,采用单元格细化和Borda序值法改进原有的风险矩阵法。改进后的方法使得风险等级数量增加,风险结数量减少。将该方法应用于脚手架工程的风险因素的分级与排序,风险等级分为6级,且实现了12个因素的明确排序。     

Multi-criteria decision-making considering risk and uncertainty in physical asset management

In this work we present a method for risk-informed decision-making in the physical asset management context whereby risk evaluation and cost-benefit analysis are considered in a common framework. The methodology uses quantitative risk measures to prioritize projects based on a combination of risk tolerance criteria, cost-benefit analysis and uncertainty reduction metrics. There is a need in the risk and asset management literature for a unified framework through which quantitative risk can be evaluated against tolerability criteria and trade-off decisions can be made between risk treatment options. The methodology uses quantitative risk measures for loss of life, loss of production and loss of property. A risk matrix is used to classify risk as intolerable, As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) or broadly tolerable. Risks in the intolerable and ALARP region require risk treatment, and risk treatment options are generated. Risk reduction benefit of the treatment options is quantified, and cost-benefit analysis is performed using discounted cashflow analysis. The Analytic Hierarchy Process is used to derive weights for prioritization criteria based on decision-maker preferences. The weights, along with prioritization criteria for risk reduction, tolerance criteria and project cost, are used to prioritize projects using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution. The usefulness of the methodology for improved decision-making is illustrated using a numerical example.     

Before the crash: A systematic analysis of police narratives to determine the prevalence of pre-crash factors in fatality road transport crashes

Abstract

Objectives: The objectives of this study were to identify the prevalence of pre-crash factors that were present in fatal road transport crashes for the deceased and counterpart road user.

Methods: The study is a retrospective population-based case series study of transport-related deaths reported to coroners in Australia from 2013 to 2016. Data was extracted from the National Coronial Information System.

Results: In total, 6,137 fatality crashes occurred during the study period. Police reports were available for 5,523 crashes (89.9%). The most frequently reported pre-crash factors reported behaviour specifically drivers (e.g., driving without a license or while license was disqualified). Presence of intoxicating substances were also reported in the deceased and counterparts. Analyses of toxicology reports are continuing to determine if rates are comparable to level of use in community.

Conclusions: Coronial report provide detailed information that may be pertinent to understanding and potentially preventing crashes. Also emerging from the data is the extent of pre-crash factors that relate to illegal or deviant behavior and whether these are contextual or contributory factors.     

An LC-MS/MS method for creatine and creatinine analysis in paraquat-intoxicated patients

Abstract

A sudden increase in serum creatinine after paraquat intoxication has been reported in several clinical studies. However, this dramatic change of creatinine may be possibly due to an interconversion of creatine-creatinine in relation to paraquat toxicity. In order to investigate the creatine-creatinine relationship, a liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry in combination with electrospray ionization was developed and validated for simultaneous determination of creatine and creatinine in the serum. The chromatographic separation was achieved on a Gemini® C₆-Phenyl column with a gradient elution consisting of 0.1% formic acid in ultrapure water and methanol as the mobile phase. The method yielded suitable levels of specificity and selectivity, and calibration curves of creatine and creatinine in serum were linear over the concentration range of 0.5–200?µg mL^?1. The limit of quantification of both compounds was 0.5?µg mL^?1, and the method was accurate within the recovery range of 96.23–102.75%, indicating the robustness of the method. The method was successfully applied to toxicological samples from paraquat-intoxicated patients, and the concentrations of creatine and creatinine were quantified. High creatine concentrations in serum samples were observed which may lead to high serum creatinine despite normal kidney function as creatine is converted to creatinine in proportion to its concentration.     

Determination of N-nitrosodimethylamine in drinking water by UPLC-MS/MS

The method for detecting N-nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA) in drinking water using ultra performance liquid chromatography (UPLC) coupled with tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS) was improved by optimizing the clean-up procedure to remove the matrix interference in pretreatment process, and was then applied to a survey of NDMA in both raw and finished water samples from five water treatment plants in South China. The NDMA concentrations ranged from 4.7 to 15.1 ng/L in raw water samples, and from 4.68 to 46.9 ng/L in finished water. The NDMA concentration in raw water was found to be related with nitrite concentration, and during the treatment, the NDMA concentration increased following ozonation but decreased after subsequent activated carbon treatment.     

"负压干法除尘和正压湿法脱硫"工艺在燃煤锅炉烟气治理中的应用

介绍了“负压干法除尘和正压湿法脱硫”工艺在20t／h燃煤锅炉烟气脱硫除尘中的应用,及该工艺的设计过程、实际运行中的问题和达到的效果。     

水淬渣人工湿地强化除磷作用研究

研究了水淬渣的磷吸附-解吸效果,构建了以水淬渣为主要基质的模拟垂直流人工湿地系统,分析了水力停留时间(HRT)和污染负荷变化对污水中磷去除的影响,探讨了湿地上行、下行流单元各层基质的除磷贡献.结果表明,水淬渣基质的磷饱和吸附量为3 333 mg.kg-1,其水溶性钙含量为0.084%,pH值为7.54,适合作为湿地除磷基质.HRT与磷除去率呈正相关,当HRT从1 d缩短为0.5 d时,TP去除率降低5.9%~4.7%,当HRT从2 d缩短为1 d时,TP去除率降低2.4%~4.7%,HRT为1 d条件下,水淬渣湿地的磷去除率>85%,说明无限延长HRT无益于强化除磷,适宜的HRT为1 d.在进水浓度稳定的条件下,进水污染负荷与磷去除率呈负相关,当污染负荷范围在12.2~36.8 g.(m2.d)-1时,水淬渣湿地的磷除去率可维持在85%,当污染负荷达到48.9 g.(m2.d)-1后,水淬渣湿地的磷除去率下降至65%,当污染负荷<36.8 g.(m2.d)-1时,水淬渣湿地的磷去除率>82%,说明高污染负荷可抑制基质表面及孔隙中Ca、Al等吸附磷的活跃位点,适宜的进水污染负荷为24.5~36.8g.(m2.d...     

多种损伤影响下正交层合板刚度退化研究

通过对纤维增强树脂基复合材料层合板的细观力学分析,建立了基体裂纹和纤维断裂2种损伤共存时正交层合板刚度退化模型.给出了纤维断裂损伤的计算方法,对正交层合板刚度退化过程进行了量化计算.结果表明,所建立的模型采用较少的几个参数即可描述层合板刚度退化过程,并与试验结果吻合较好.     

新型堆肥生物反应器人粪便堆肥功效的评价

利用以锯末为载体的Bio-Lux S15型生态卫生设备,对人粪便进行了连续性堆肥实验,考察了BOD5、粪大肠菌和蛔虫卵的灭活以及最终产品N、P和K等肥料成分的含量。实验结果表明,最初30 d,BOD5的累积去除率由27%快速增加到50%,之后的30 d维持在50%左右,随后下降至40%左右。生态卫生设备中维持50-60℃的温度是杀灭粪便病原微生物的适宜条件,可保证粪便投入后在24 h内,粪大肠菌的灭活率达到99.99%,蛔虫卵的灭活率在2 h内达100%。对反应周期内载体的N、P和K等肥料成分的分析结果表明,反应过程中3种肥分都持续积累,在反应末期,按TN、P2O5和K2O计算的3种肥分最终分别达到25.1、123.4和2.0 g/kg,基本上达到了农用肥料的国家标准,表明以锯末为载体的反应器具有良好的堆肥效果。     

Population viability and harvest sustainability for Madagascar lemurs

Subsistence hunting presents a conservation challenge by which biodiversity preservation must be balanced with safeguarding of human livelihoods. Globally, subsistence hunting threatens primate populations, including Madagascar's endemic lemurs. We used population viability analysis to assess the sustainability of lemur hunting in Makira Natural Park, Madagascar. We identified trends in seasonal hunting of 11 Makira lemur species from household interview data, estimated local lemur densities in populations adjacent to focal villages via transect surveys, and quantified extinction vulnerability for these populations based on species-specific demographic parameters and empirically derived hunting rates. We compared stage-based Lefkovitch with periodic Leslie matrices to evaluate the impact of regional dispersal on persistence trajectories and explored the consequences of perturbations to the timing of peak hunting relative to the lemur birth pulse, under assumptions of density-dependent reproductive compensation. Lemur hunting peaked during the fruit-abundant wet season (March–June). Estimated local lemur densities were roughly inverse to body size across our study area. Life-history modeling indicated that hunting most severely threatened the species with the largest bodies (i.e., Hapalemur occidentalis, Avahi laniger, Daubentonia madagascariensis, and Indri indi), characterized by late-age reproductive onsets and long interbirth intervals. In model simulations, lemur dispersal within a regional metapopulation buffered extinction threats when a majority of local sites supported growth rates above the replacement level but drove regional extirpations when most local sites were overharvested. Hunt simulations were most detrimental when timed to overlap lemur births (a reality for D. madagascariensis and I. indri). In sum, Makira lemurs were overharvested. Regional extirpations, which may contribute to broad-scale extinctions, will be likely if current hunting rates persist. Cessation of anthropogenic lemur harvest is a conservation priority, and development programs are needed to help communities switch from wildlife consumption to domestic protein alternatives.